Debate Asteroid 2012 TC4 - How comes nobody picks up on this?

[Harte]

Space rocks smaller than about 25 meters (about 82 feet) will most likely burn up as they enter the Earth's atmosphere and cause little or no damage.

If a rocky meteoroid larger than 25 meters but smaller than one kilometer ( a little more than 1/2 mile) were to hit Earth, it would likely cause local damage to the impact area.

Source
However, as I explained, it's not really that simple because meteoroids don't all have the same density, are not always of the same makeup, and don't enter the atmosphere with the same velocity or angle.
On top of that, there is a minimum size to what will burn up, as I explained. Meteoroids of small mass can make it through because they more easily lose their velocity to the atmospheric friction, which causes them to stop burning away.

Harte

 

[heka2015]

JPL - Jet Propulsion Laboritory
CNEOS - Center for Near Earth Study
(2012 TC4) Impact probability: 7.2e-5 V relative to earth: 6.51 km/s Absolute magnitude: 26.7 mag Estimate diameter: 0.015 km Torino Scale: 0
More precise estimate here, 15 meters again NASA prefers multiple choice.

The Torino Scale needs a little rethinking, if an Asteroid of just 18 m and 12 000 t can deliver a 500 kt blow, even more if the estimate of frequency of such impacts is higher by the magnitude of ten.
Asteroids are classified 0 only because their "supposed" kinetic energy is below 1 Mt.
Chebyalinsk classified 0 as well with approx 400-500 kt, that is just crazy if you think Hiroshima had 15 kt (!) of kinetic energy.
It needs to be an Asteroid minimum of 66x the Hiroshima bomb to be recognized on the Torino Scale above 0?
They should be classified 2-4, and thats a "MERITING ATTENTION BY ASTRONOMERS (yellow)".
Torino scale

Ironically, the lighter the meteoroid, the better chance it has of impacting because it can slow down enough in the atmosphere to reduce the friction.

I agree with you on the meteoroide part, proof is all scattered around, so to speak.
You can find plenty of Micrometeorites on house roofs in cities (Source).

I do not intent to paint armageddon here.
But if you look at the facts it doesn't look like a every day shooting star.

An Asteroid of 15 m (10-30m or whatever NASA metric you want to use)
with an estimated air blast of 500 kt shouldn't be taken as no threat at all, passing by between 4200 and 170 000 miles,
or don't I get the facts right?
Evidence indicates the chance of burn up in the atmosphere is not likely, observations suggests an air burst at that size.
I hope i provided enough sources on this.

A Hardhat isn't that bad of an idea. I would add the usual earthquake drill maybe, just in case.
Why not simply inform people, like they do with fire/earthquake/flood/tsunami etc. ?
Stay away from windows at least... something in the case of an event in general.
But that would people freak out now, wouldn't it?
That would have saved a lot of injuries in Chebyalinsk.
Even without knowing it coming.

 

[heka2015]

Space rocks smaller than about 25 meters (about 82 feet) will most likely burn up as they enter the Earth's atmosphere and cause little or no damage.

If a rocky meteoroid larger than 25 meters but smaller than one kilometer ( a little more than 1/2 mile) were to hit Earth, it would likely cause local damage to the impact area.

Source
However, as I explained, it's not really that simple because meteoroids don't all have the same density, are not always of the same makeup, and don't enter the atmosphere with the same velocity or angle.
On top of that, there is a minimum size to what will burn up, as I explained. Meteoroids of small mass can make it through because they more easily lose their velocity to the atmospheric friction, which causes them to stop burning away.

Harte

First statement seems to be untrue.
I provided a lot of valid information that this NASA statement cannot be true.
Ultimately that would be my point.
Evidence and observation suggests no burn up occurs in most cases.
Air burst due pressure building seems to be the common occurence.
Even if NASA decided not to use Information on the Chebyalinsk Meteor stated above (source),
or any other bolide incidents.

heka

 

[Harte]

Space rocks smaller than about 25 meters (about 82 feet) will most likely burn up as they enter the Earth's atmosphere and cause little or no damage.

If a rocky meteoroid larger than 25 meters but smaller than one kilometer ( a little more than 1/2 mile) were to hit Earth, it would likely cause local damage to the impact area.

Source
However, as I explained, it's not really that simple because meteoroids don't all have the same density, are not always of the same makeup, and don't enter the atmosphere with the same velocity or angle.
On top of that, there is a minimum size to what will burn up, as I explained. Meteoroids of small mass can make it through because they more easily lose their velocity to the atmospheric friction, which causes them to stop burning away.

Harte

First statement seems to be untrue.
I provided a lot of valid information that this NASA statement cannot be true.
Ultimately that would be my point.
Evidence and observation suggests no burn up occurs in most cases.
Air burst due pressure building seems to be the common occurence.
Even if NASA decided not to use Information on the Chebyalinsk Meteor stated above (source),
or any other bolide incidents.

heka

It's a general answer to a complicated question.
Meteoroids that burst result in smaller meteoroids that can then be slowed faster by the air resistance, for example.
Stony objects are more likely to explode than metallic ones.
There are also asteroids that are little more than collections of pebbles. These don't explode, but fall apart and each pebble has a good chance of making it to the ground because, again, they are smaller.

And it's true that "no burnup occurs in most cases," since by FAR the most cases involve meteoroids smaller than a marble. Most of them are like sand grains.

At any rate, the meteoroid this thread is about poses no real threat, even if it explodes.

Harte