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US election passing peacefully?
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<blockquote data-quote="Unintentional" data-source="post: 12712" data-attributes="member: 22"><p><strong>US election passing peacefully?</strong></p><p></p><p>I am posting this to only respond to Dissnt and react to Mallory tape. (three hours! whew!)</p><p></p><p>Exit polling was wrong. It was wrong in Virginia and the final official totals were way off of what early, raw, exit polling was. There are no e-voting machines in Virginia. It is all punch card, optical scanning and mechanical tabulation (1940s technology). The same thing happened in Indiana. These are only two examples. There are many more.</p><p></p><p>I don't know the total of precincts that are done with e-voting, but I gather it is very very low. If you can find out the exact number, this paragraph will need updated. Let's say 10% of precincts are done with e-voting (a ridiculously high number). 114 million people voted for prez. Bush won by 5 million. Using the high assumption, 11 million people voted for prez with e-voting machines. In order for Bush to have rigged the election with e-voting, 50% of every single vote cast with e-voting would have to have been rigged to error in Bush's favor. This would not have gone by unnoticed anywhere. Okay, okay, now you're saying, he only needed to rig Ohio. Mallory said several times that Kerry actually won the popular vote as well.</p><p></p><p>Mallory also said the "gay hating christians" voted for Bush because the anti-gay marriage on the ballot. This did not help Bush in Oregon, Michigan, and Minnesota, three states that voted for Kerry, but against gay marriage.</p><p></p><p>To prove I listened to the whole three hours, at the top of the second hour, Mallory accidently calls Kerry, "George Kerry". A freudian slip?</p><p></p><p>The simplist explanation for the election results is...a majority of Americans choose and voted for George Bush. If you except this, all of Mallories theories evaporate. The election results also match almost exactly what the pre-election polling was showing. A slight lead for Bush, about 51 to 48 percent. The average of all the polls, the day before the election, showed a Bush lead of 1.5%. This is what the election results also show.</p><p><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html</a></p><p>Bush had also been leading Kerry is the average of all polls since September 1.</p><p><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/President.../chart3way.html" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/President.../chart3way.html</a></p><p></p><p>Is Mallory suggesting that CNN, CBS, the New York Times, Newsweek; whose polls show the day before and days leading up to the elction, that Bush was leading; are in the Republicans back pocket?</p><p></p><p>The problem with exit polling that has feuled the conspiracy theorists is that the RAW data was release without interpolation or correlation. I have studied some political science and raw date from exit polling MUST be interpolated and correlated to make any sense. The exit polling on NOvermber 2 was done in a smattering of places. The EARLY RAW exit polling showed a Kerry lead. It was this data that was leaked on the internet. When this is interpolated and correlated, it may actually mean a Bush lead. Let me try to explain. Exit polling is usually done in high population areas. These areas are typically Democrat voters. Using history of the precinct, sometimes a hundred year or more history, you can interpret the results as such: A 2% exit poll lead in X precint for Y candidate, based on history of previous elections for a hundred years, correlates to a 1% lead for Z candidate. Based on the history of how a precint votes, with exit polling in a few places you can determine how the whole state will vote with pretty good accuracy. EARLY, RAW data that has not been correlated or interpreted is meaningless.</p><p></p><p>Mallories entire theory that Bush rigged the election with e-voting is baseless. The election results mached what polls were showing. The exit polling that was wrong everywhere (in states with NO e-voting and in states with it). Gay hating fundamentals did not drive this election, they voted in the same percentage as 4 years ago. (This last point, Mallory contridicts himself. Did Bush steal the election or did gay hating fundies driven to a frenzy pull it through for Bush? Of which THREE states for Kerry AND against gay marriage?!?)</p><p></p><p>the only thing Mallory has is that most of the machines were built by Diebold, which is owned by republicans. Yet, it was the States and local precincts that decided to use these machines, and in many cases it was decided by a Democrat.</p><p></p><p>I suggest to everyone who mistrust these machines. Vote absent T or provisional or whatever you want to do so you can have your paper trail. Or petition you local board to get rid of them. Or use a modification of them that gives a paper receit. I must warn you, if you give paper reciets, you must have draconian laws to punish those who would pay for votes or intimidate a person to show there receipt and get a "reward".</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Unintentional, post: 12712, member: 22"] [b]US election passing peacefully?[/b] I am posting this to only respond to Dissnt and react to Mallory tape. (three hours! whew!) Exit polling was wrong. It was wrong in Virginia and the final official totals were way off of what early, raw, exit polling was. There are no e-voting machines in Virginia. It is all punch card, optical scanning and mechanical tabulation (1940s technology). The same thing happened in Indiana. These are only two examples. There are many more. I don't know the total of precincts that are done with e-voting, but I gather it is very very low. If you can find out the exact number, this paragraph will need updated. Let's say 10% of precincts are done with e-voting (a ridiculously high number). 114 million people voted for prez. Bush won by 5 million. Using the high assumption, 11 million people voted for prez with e-voting machines. In order for Bush to have rigged the election with e-voting, 50% of every single vote cast with e-voting would have to have been rigged to error in Bush's favor. This would not have gone by unnoticed anywhere. Okay, okay, now you're saying, he only needed to rig Ohio. Mallory said several times that Kerry actually won the popular vote as well. Mallory also said the "gay hating christians" voted for Bush because the anti-gay marriage on the ballot. This did not help Bush in Oregon, Michigan, and Minnesota, three states that voted for Kerry, but against gay marriage. To prove I listened to the whole three hours, at the top of the second hour, Mallory accidently calls Kerry, "George Kerry". A freudian slip? The simplist explanation for the election results is...a majority of Americans choose and voted for George Bush. If you except this, all of Mallories theories evaporate. The election results also match almost exactly what the pre-election polling was showing. A slight lead for Bush, about 51 to 48 percent. The average of all the polls, the day before the election, showed a Bush lead of 1.5%. This is what the election results also show. [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html[/url] Bush had also been leading Kerry is the average of all polls since September 1. [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/President.../chart3way.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/President.../chart3way.html[/url] Is Mallory suggesting that CNN, CBS, the New York Times, Newsweek; whose polls show the day before and days leading up to the elction, that Bush was leading; are in the Republicans back pocket? The problem with exit polling that has feuled the conspiracy theorists is that the RAW data was release without interpolation or correlation. I have studied some political science and raw date from exit polling MUST be interpolated and correlated to make any sense. The exit polling on NOvermber 2 was done in a smattering of places. The EARLY RAW exit polling showed a Kerry lead. It was this data that was leaked on the internet. When this is interpolated and correlated, it may actually mean a Bush lead. Let me try to explain. Exit polling is usually done in high population areas. These areas are typically Democrat voters. Using history of the precinct, sometimes a hundred year or more history, you can interpret the results as such: A 2% exit poll lead in X precint for Y candidate, based on history of previous elections for a hundred years, correlates to a 1% lead for Z candidate. Based on the history of how a precint votes, with exit polling in a few places you can determine how the whole state will vote with pretty good accuracy. EARLY, RAW data that has not been correlated or interpreted is meaningless. Mallories entire theory that Bush rigged the election with e-voting is baseless. The election results mached what polls were showing. The exit polling that was wrong everywhere (in states with NO e-voting and in states with it). Gay hating fundamentals did not drive this election, they voted in the same percentage as 4 years ago. (This last point, Mallory contridicts himself. Did Bush steal the election or did gay hating fundies driven to a frenzy pull it through for Bush? Of which THREE states for Kerry AND against gay marriage?!?) the only thing Mallory has is that most of the machines were built by Diebold, which is owned by republicans. Yet, it was the States and local precincts that decided to use these machines, and in many cases it was decided by a Democrat. I suggest to everyone who mistrust these machines. Vote absent T or provisional or whatever you want to do so you can have your paper trail. Or petition you local board to get rid of them. Or use a modification of them that gives a paper receit. I must warn you, if you give paper reciets, you must have draconian laws to punish those who would pay for votes or intimidate a person to show there receipt and get a "reward". [/QUOTE]
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