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<blockquote data-quote="Kairos" data-source="post: 184491" data-attributes="member: 10263"><p>Carl Sagan's dumbass quote was literally a fallacy. Absence of evidence does not constitute evidence of absence at all. Every discovery of some new phenomena or event shows you this is a fallacy. Did black swans not exist until we discovered them? Of course they did. Don't be silly.</p><p></p><p>The idea only works when you exhaust all possible events. For instance, if I have a bucket of blue marbles, and suspect you placed a red marble in the bucket, then after having examined all the marbles and finding no red marbles, I can conclude the original hypothesis to be false because I exhaustively searched the bucket and found no red marbles. But if for some reason I could not access all the marbles; for instance, only being able to sample 10% of the marbles in the bucket; the fact that I found no red marbles does not disprove the hypothesis that you placed a red marble in the bucket.</p><p></p><p></p><p>At one time, there were marine biologists who said there were no such thing as giant squid because none of them ever observed any. Until somebody did and recorded it. At one time astronomers declared that rocks could not possibly fall from space, contradicting what rural folk had been telling them all along. Then they observed rocks falling from space.</p><p></p><p>The fallacy lies in your assumption that you exhausted your observations. You don't know that because you can't make assumptions about what you have not observed. You especially cannot make assumptions about the breadth and depth of phenomena you have not observed.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Kairos, post: 184491, member: 10263"] Carl Sagan's dumbass quote was literally a fallacy. Absence of evidence does not constitute evidence of absence at all. Every discovery of some new phenomena or event shows you this is a fallacy. Did black swans not exist until we discovered them? Of course they did. Don't be silly. The idea only works when you exhaust all possible events. For instance, if I have a bucket of blue marbles, and suspect you placed a red marble in the bucket, then after having examined all the marbles and finding no red marbles, I can conclude the original hypothesis to be false because I exhaustively searched the bucket and found no red marbles. But if for some reason I could not access all the marbles; for instance, only being able to sample 10% of the marbles in the bucket; the fact that I found no red marbles does not disprove the hypothesis that you placed a red marble in the bucket. At one time, there were marine biologists who said there were no such thing as giant squid because none of them ever observed any. Until somebody did and recorded it. At one time astronomers declared that rocks could not possibly fall from space, contradicting what rural folk had been telling them all along. Then they observed rocks falling from space. The fallacy lies in your assumption that you exhausted your observations. You don't know that because you can't make assumptions about what you have not observed. You especially cannot make assumptions about the breadth and depth of phenomena you have not observed. [/QUOTE]
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