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<blockquote data-quote="Sonix" data-source="post: 184564" data-attributes="member: 10954"><p>[USER=443]@Harte[/USER] , the distinction between evidence and proof you are noting is accurate. The caveat is that unless you are omniscient, evidence of absence is only possible once the limits of context are recognized. If I've done a thorough search of a park and have found only white swans, then I could say I have evidence of there being no black swans <em>during my search, in the park</em>. The evidence, however - and this is a subtlety - is not the presence of white swans but in the thoroughness of my search and not locating any black ones. White swans, whatever their number, cannot constitute evidence of anything except the existence of white swans, which is easily recognized as soon a black swan enters the park, as at that point we could hardly insist that white swans constitute evidence to the contrary. And although we may feel confident having scoured the park and finding only white swans in saying "Today I thoroughly searched the park and found no black swans and that for me is evidence that there are no black swans in the park", we should recognize that the search provided no evidence about the status of black swans in the park on the previous days nor in the future nor in the world outside the scope of the search. We can have levels of confidence in what to expect in our day to day life because our experience is local and generally there are not radical changes in most things we experience in our proximity. But the common sense that allows us to navigate the world with working hypotheses on what to expect moment to moment does a disservice if applied to support claims of the universality of our local expectations.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Sonix, post: 184564, member: 10954"] [USER=443]@Harte[/USER] , the distinction between evidence and proof you are noting is accurate. The caveat is that unless you are omniscient, evidence of absence is only possible once the limits of context are recognized. If I've done a thorough search of a park and have found only white swans, then I could say I have evidence of there being no black swans [I]during my search, in the park[/I]. The evidence, however - and this is a subtlety - is not the presence of white swans but in the thoroughness of my search and not locating any black ones. White swans, whatever their number, cannot constitute evidence of anything except the existence of white swans, which is easily recognized as soon a black swan enters the park, as at that point we could hardly insist that white swans constitute evidence to the contrary. And although we may feel confident having scoured the park and finding only white swans in saying "Today I thoroughly searched the park and found no black swans and that for me is evidence that there are no black swans in the park", we should recognize that the search provided no evidence about the status of black swans in the park on the previous days nor in the future nor in the world outside the scope of the search. We can have levels of confidence in what to expect in our day to day life because our experience is local and generally there are not radical changes in most things we experience in our proximity. But the common sense that allows us to navigate the world with working hypotheses on what to expect moment to moment does a disservice if applied to support claims of the universality of our local expectations. [/QUOTE]
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