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Future Predictions
Predictions For 2015?
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<blockquote data-quote="chronoclast" data-source="post: 87531" data-attributes="member: 5927"><p>I'll offer a few relevant, testable predictions for late 2014 to 2015. I'm not claiming to be a time traveler.</p><p></p><p>The conflict in Ukraine will lead to a boycott of Russia's natural gas, with American gas going oversea to the EU. Russia will occupy a northeastern crescent of Ukraine and this will be a sore point.</p><p></p><p>Meanwhile, the US economy will generally do well and run into inflation, which will drive up stock prices but not so much gold because parked cash will be rushed to invest (fueling inflation and stocks' rise). The Russian economy (since I just mentioned Russia) will falter and this will have social consequences. There has been some strategy to this and surprisingly not many people see that. The goal is to economically and politically isolate Russia by baiting them into looking aggressive, volatile, and unpredictable. I anticipate a more serious military confrontation involving the US though impacting Ukraine and Poland more. Denmark and Canada may also have some issues with Russia, and in related news we'll see Exxon defying the US government more than they already have (by continuing to partner with Russia) and receiving some public consequences for this.</p><p></p><p>Zooming out to a broader prediction, we're nearing a time when 3 important social trends will take place in America. These will be more apparent and will be subjects of discussion in 2015 and will become more tangible by 2016.</p><p></p><p>First, younger generations will increasingly break from the previous and form a conscious collective resentment, blaming previous generations for economic burdens in the past. This clash will determine important currents of society as did Civil Rights and the Vietnam War. This will also tend to break up the Left vs. Right movement as each side breaks along age lines.</p><p></p><p>Second, improving technology will increasingly lower a lot of human labor value, depressing how much consumers will give to those who are trying to earn money. This also makes it easier for a large corporation to accrue compounding wealth. The response will be a broader move toward a more socialist society. I don't say this in a negative nor positive way. It will help a lot of people, though it will also commit many Americans to pay for things practically beyond our control (as we already do for our military).</p><p></p><p>Third, eventually the financial impact of Baby Boomers' aging will catch up and will weigh on the stock market in an important way, exacerbating the first point above but somewhat easing the second by raising demand for human labor. A sort of vote war will occur along the new partisan lines (the age line). The old will cater to the poor but eventually as the old die off the balance will shift to the young, who will include people in their 40s.</p><p></p><p>Lastly, the Tea Party movement won't survive in its current form. Rather it will become first a fusion of "Constitutionalists", hackers, "DIYers" (i.e., people who like making and building things, from tech to composting) and several rich individuals who share a more Libertarian stance. Laws will be simplified and reduced. The "lower class" will increasingly be recognizable as those who can't manage their attention (addicted to mobile devices and short-term gratification entertainment), their diet, and their time.</p><p></p><p>Comments are welcome.</p><p></p><p>BTW, the time to take out a sizable *fixed-rate* loan is now.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="chronoclast, post: 87531, member: 5927"] I'll offer a few relevant, testable predictions for late 2014 to 2015. I'm not claiming to be a time traveler. The conflict in Ukraine will lead to a boycott of Russia's natural gas, with American gas going oversea to the EU. Russia will occupy a northeastern crescent of Ukraine and this will be a sore point. Meanwhile, the US economy will generally do well and run into inflation, which will drive up stock prices but not so much gold because parked cash will be rushed to invest (fueling inflation and stocks' rise). The Russian economy (since I just mentioned Russia) will falter and this will have social consequences. There has been some strategy to this and surprisingly not many people see that. The goal is to economically and politically isolate Russia by baiting them into looking aggressive, volatile, and unpredictable. I anticipate a more serious military confrontation involving the US though impacting Ukraine and Poland more. Denmark and Canada may also have some issues with Russia, and in related news we'll see Exxon defying the US government more than they already have (by continuing to partner with Russia) and receiving some public consequences for this. Zooming out to a broader prediction, we're nearing a time when 3 important social trends will take place in America. These will be more apparent and will be subjects of discussion in 2015 and will become more tangible by 2016. First, younger generations will increasingly break from the previous and form a conscious collective resentment, blaming previous generations for economic burdens in the past. This clash will determine important currents of society as did Civil Rights and the Vietnam War. This will also tend to break up the Left vs. Right movement as each side breaks along age lines. Second, improving technology will increasingly lower a lot of human labor value, depressing how much consumers will give to those who are trying to earn money. This also makes it easier for a large corporation to accrue compounding wealth. The response will be a broader move toward a more socialist society. I don't say this in a negative nor positive way. It will help a lot of people, though it will also commit many Americans to pay for things practically beyond our control (as we already do for our military). Third, eventually the financial impact of Baby Boomers' aging will catch up and will weigh on the stock market in an important way, exacerbating the first point above but somewhat easing the second by raising demand for human labor. A sort of vote war will occur along the new partisan lines (the age line). The old will cater to the poor but eventually as the old die off the balance will shift to the young, who will include people in their 40s. Lastly, the Tea Party movement won't survive in its current form. Rather it will become first a fusion of "Constitutionalists", hackers, "DIYers" (i.e., people who like making and building things, from tech to composting) and several rich individuals who share a more Libertarian stance. Laws will be simplified and reduced. The "lower class" will increasingly be recognizable as those who can't manage their attention (addicted to mobile devices and short-term gratification entertainment), their diet, and their time. Comments are welcome. BTW, the time to take out a sizable *fixed-rate* loan is now. [/QUOTE]
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