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Future Predictions
Predictions For 2015?
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<blockquote data-quote="chronoclast" data-source="post: 87825" data-attributes="member: 5927"><p>I'm not joking. Historically, as far as we can tell violence has diminished.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violence" target="_blank">Steven Pinker: The surprising decline in violence | Talk Video | TED.com</a></p><p></p><p>Today there are many more people than in centuries past, and most have better access to food, information, and medical care than societies in the past. There are, of course, exceptions -- I can imagine many in Iraq having better lives during the Islamic Golden Age, for example. But as a whole people are living longer and have more options to enjoy their time and see their children grow up.</p><p></p><p>You're correct that the Great Depression apparently didn't result in an explosion of violence in the US (it did rise compared to previous decades but not dramatically), but the Depression also sent a shockwave through Europe which exacerbated existing conflicts and, in my opinion. set off WWII. And note that a long depression occurred in the US and abroad around 1873, its effects lasting nearly to 1900 by some observations.</p><p></p><p>These recession periods are dangerous and increase the risk of large-scale violence breaking out. The last period like this was the late 70s, brought on (in my opinion) by a combination of inflation resulting from a recent decoupling from gold and offending OPEC. The bright side was that it created an apparent exaggeration in stock growth which drove a recovery (alongside Reagan roughly tripling the National Debt to 2.7 trillion).</p><p></p><p>These are my opinions. I would like to hear more of your disagreement and substantiations.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="chronoclast, post: 87825, member: 5927"] I'm not joking. Historically, as far as we can tell violence has diminished. [url="https://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violence"]Steven Pinker: The surprising decline in violence | Talk Video | TED.com[/url] Today there are many more people than in centuries past, and most have better access to food, information, and medical care than societies in the past. There are, of course, exceptions -- I can imagine many in Iraq having better lives during the Islamic Golden Age, for example. But as a whole people are living longer and have more options to enjoy their time and see their children grow up. You're correct that the Great Depression apparently didn't result in an explosion of violence in the US (it did rise compared to previous decades but not dramatically), but the Depression also sent a shockwave through Europe which exacerbated existing conflicts and, in my opinion. set off WWII. And note that a long depression occurred in the US and abroad around 1873, its effects lasting nearly to 1900 by some observations. These recession periods are dangerous and increase the risk of large-scale violence breaking out. The last period like this was the late 70s, brought on (in my opinion) by a combination of inflation resulting from a recent decoupling from gold and offending OPEC. The bright side was that it created an apparent exaggeration in stock growth which drove a recovery (alongside Reagan roughly tripling the National Debt to 2.7 trillion). These are my opinions. I would like to hear more of your disagreement and substantiations. [/QUOTE]
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