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<blockquote data-quote="Ayasano" data-source="post: 93810" data-attributes="member: 4804"><p>Given that technology follows an exponential curve, not a linear one, a million years would probably put a species into "sentient points of light with an obsession for mathematics" territory, assuming they don't depart this universe altogether. </p><p></p><p>People tend to see the progress made in their lifetime and assume that technology will continue to change by that amount, but taking a wider look at history, that isn't the case. Humanity is in for a fundamental shift in pretty much all aspects of our lives before the century is out, if current trends loosely continue. (And there's no reason to think they won't, again, given historical context) And honestly, that's a <em><strong>conservative</strong></em> estimate. If somebody cracks the AI problem in the next 25 years, it'll happen <em><strong>much</strong></em> sooner. (Which is a good thing, mind you. No hardware overhang == Controlled AI Development == 99% of our problems being fixed in one fell swoop. Uncontrolled on the other hand...)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ayasano, post: 93810, member: 4804"] Given that technology follows an exponential curve, not a linear one, a million years would probably put a species into "sentient points of light with an obsession for mathematics" territory, assuming they don't depart this universe altogether. People tend to see the progress made in their lifetime and assume that technology will continue to change by that amount, but taking a wider look at history, that isn't the case. Humanity is in for a fundamental shift in pretty much all aspects of our lives before the century is out, if current trends loosely continue. (And there's no reason to think they won't, again, given historical context) And honestly, that's a [I][B]conservative[/B][/I] estimate. If somebody cracks the AI problem in the next 25 years, it'll happen [I][B]much[/B][/I] sooner. (Which is a good thing, mind you. No hardware overhang == Controlled AI Development == 99% of our problems being fixed in one fell swoop. Uncontrolled on the other hand...) [/QUOTE]
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