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Paranormal Forum
Psychic Ability & Powers of the Mind
The Prisoner dilemma
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<blockquote data-quote="Phoenix" data-source="post: 5688" data-attributes="member: 10"><p><strong>The Prisoner dilemma</strong></p><p></p><p>The math involved in the prisoner dilemma scenario would work as follows.</p><p></p><p>Expected value if you tell.</p><p></p><p>Let us say a 50/50 chance of your friend telling.</p><p></p><p>.50*5 +.50*0 = expected value of 2.5 years in jail if you tell.</p><p></p><p>Expected value if you do not tell.</p><p></p><p>.50*1+.50*20= expected value of 10.5 year in jail if you do not tell.</p><p></p><p>Thus assuming a 50/50 chance it is better if you tell.</p><p></p><p>Now say you do trust that your partner in crime is 90% likely to not tell on you.</p><p></p><p>If you tell on this friend</p><p></p><p>.10*5 +.9*0 = expected value of .5 years in jail.</p><p></p><p>Expected value if you do not tell</p><p></p><p>.90*1 + .10*20 = expected value of 2.9 years in jail.</p><p></p><p>It is still to your advantage to tell on your friend even if he is 90% likely to not tell on you.</p><p></p><p>now it can be computed just how trustworthy you would need to consider your friend for either alternative to be equally advantageous.</p><p>t = chance your friend tells</p><p>d = chance your friend doesn't tell</p><p>t + d = 1</p><p>t*5 +d*0=d*1+t*20</p><p></p><p>t = 1 - d</p><p>5t =20t + d</p><p></p><p>15t = -d</p><p>-t = -1 +d</p><p>14t = -1</p><p>t = -.07</p><p>In this scenario it is impossible for your friend to be trustworthy enough for him to lesson your sentence.</p><p></p><p>You would need to trust your friend 107% of the time which is impossible.</p><p></p><p>Now you may modify these results to. Say, for you not telling on a friend is actually worth spending 15 years in jail for. In your own perspective.</p><p></p><p>Then the results in the 50/50 evaluation would be as follows.</p><p></p><p>17.5 virtual years if you tell on your friend</p><p>10.5 actual years if you don't tell on your friend.</p><p></p><p>Here, because how much you value not telling on your friend it becomes worth the risk of more time in jail.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Phoenix, post: 5688, member: 10"] [b]The Prisoner dilemma[/b] The math involved in the prisoner dilemma scenario would work as follows. Expected value if you tell. Let us say a 50/50 chance of your friend telling. .50*5 +.50*0 = expected value of 2.5 years in jail if you tell. Expected value if you do not tell. .50*1+.50*20= expected value of 10.5 year in jail if you do not tell. Thus assuming a 50/50 chance it is better if you tell. Now say you do trust that your partner in crime is 90% likely to not tell on you. If you tell on this friend .10*5 +.9*0 = expected value of .5 years in jail. Expected value if you do not tell .90*1 + .10*20 = expected value of 2.9 years in jail. It is still to your advantage to tell on your friend even if he is 90% likely to not tell on you. now it can be computed just how trustworthy you would need to consider your friend for either alternative to be equally advantageous. t = chance your friend tells d = chance your friend doesn't tell t + d = 1 t*5 +d*0=d*1+t*20 t = 1 - d 5t =20t + d 15t = -d -t = -1 +d 14t = -1 t = -.07 In this scenario it is impossible for your friend to be trustworthy enough for him to lesson your sentence. You would need to trust your friend 107% of the time which is impossible. Now you may modify these results to. Say, for you not telling on a friend is actually worth spending 15 years in jail for. In your own perspective. Then the results in the 50/50 evaluation would be as follows. 17.5 virtual years if you tell on your friend 10.5 actual years if you don't tell on your friend. Here, because how much you value not telling on your friend it becomes worth the risk of more time in jail. [/QUOTE]
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