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World Finance Watch
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<blockquote data-quote="CaryP" data-source="post: 24568" data-attributes="member: 34"><p><strong>Re: World Finance Watch</strong></p><p></p><p><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(\"PyRo99\")</div></p><p></p><p>Pyro,</p><p></p><p>That's a great question. Problem is, the "if" is about a lock down 100%, the "when" is the hard part. The research I'm reading now says the next leg of the bear market "down" is just getting started (stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc. - not very popular with Wall St. types). That's what happens in a deflationary depression scenario. Everything "went up in unison" in 2003 and 2004. That doesn't happen except in stimulus induced "blow off" bubbles. We sure got some world record "stimulus" from the Fed and Bushco. All of a sudden oil, commodities, financial assets, and some parts of the real estated market are showing serious fatigue and "cracks" in the system. So the first big "Ah ha" could be this year. That's my guess so far. But the PTB want to keep the game going for as long as possible. It's getting harder and harder to do. But when you have an unlimited printing press at your disposal, and most of the rest of the world "accepting" your "paper" as legit, you can jack around for a while.</p><p></p><p>So I don't know when. The research and analysis says that the next "big" leg down should end sometime in early 2007. The ultimate downside should be around 2010 - 2012. Yeah, I know, that ties in with the Mayan calendar. These guys could give a rat's ass about some moldy old native calendar from So. America. Doesn't enter their thought process. My best guess is we could see some serious downside between now and 2007. We'll have some kind of "recovery" that will mostly be sideways (up and down) for a couple of years, only to be followed by another "swoosh" to the downside into the 2010 - 2012 time period. </p><p></p><p>Predictions to the downside show that the Dow should be around 700 at that time. It closed at 10,403.93 today. About 93% to the downside - just like the crash in the early 30's. That's a massive move to the downside, and would call for a deflationary depression of global and historic proportions. I know, it sounds incredible and "no one" believes it's possible because "the Fed or the Govt. has safeguards in place." LOL What a crock of BS. The markets are bigger than any govt. or central bank. When the flow decides to go where its going, it's best to get the hell out of the way. The Fed and the govt. have done about a perfect recipe of setting the next deflationary crash up with perfect precision. We'll see if Easy Al can hold this thing together until he retires in January. You couldn't pay me a billion dollars a year to take his place in 2006. I wouldn't want to wind up on the wrong end of a hangman's noose shortly after that. That money wouldn't be enjoyed.</p><p></p><p>Don't know if that answers your question. Calling "tops'" and "bottoms" is always a precarious situation. Markets have a way of making monkeys out of everyone, and the "bear" market wants everyone to lose money (bulls and bears alike). That's where we're at now. If you're not sure, be in cash/cash equivalents/Treasury money markets or a "safe" foreign currency. Good luck picking that one. A deflationary depression will have your "cash" appreciate in value against falling prices, which accompany a deflationary scenario.</p><p></p><p>Hope I'm not talking another language here. If you have questions, just ask. I'll try to explain in non-technical terms.</p><p></p><p>Cary</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CaryP, post: 24568, member: 34"] [b]Re: World Finance Watch[/b] <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(\"PyRo99\")</div> Pyro, That's a great question. Problem is, the "if" is about a lock down 100%, the "when" is the hard part. The research I'm reading now says the next leg of the bear market "down" is just getting started (stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc. - not very popular with Wall St. types). That's what happens in a deflationary depression scenario. Everything "went up in unison" in 2003 and 2004. That doesn't happen except in stimulus induced "blow off" bubbles. We sure got some world record "stimulus" from the Fed and Bushco. All of a sudden oil, commodities, financial assets, and some parts of the real estated market are showing serious fatigue and "cracks" in the system. So the first big "Ah ha" could be this year. That's my guess so far. But the PTB want to keep the game going for as long as possible. It's getting harder and harder to do. But when you have an unlimited printing press at your disposal, and most of the rest of the world "accepting" your "paper" as legit, you can jack around for a while. So I don't know when. The research and analysis says that the next "big" leg down should end sometime in early 2007. The ultimate downside should be around 2010 - 2012. Yeah, I know, that ties in with the Mayan calendar. These guys could give a rat's ass about some moldy old native calendar from So. America. Doesn't enter their thought process. My best guess is we could see some serious downside between now and 2007. We'll have some kind of "recovery" that will mostly be sideways (up and down) for a couple of years, only to be followed by another "swoosh" to the downside into the 2010 - 2012 time period. Predictions to the downside show that the Dow should be around 700 at that time. It closed at 10,403.93 today. About 93% to the downside - just like the crash in the early 30's. That's a massive move to the downside, and would call for a deflationary depression of global and historic proportions. I know, it sounds incredible and "no one" believes it's possible because "the Fed or the Govt. has safeguards in place." LOL What a crock of BS. The markets are bigger than any govt. or central bank. When the flow decides to go where its going, it's best to get the hell out of the way. The Fed and the govt. have done about a perfect recipe of setting the next deflationary crash up with perfect precision. We'll see if Easy Al can hold this thing together until he retires in January. You couldn't pay me a billion dollars a year to take his place in 2006. I wouldn't want to wind up on the wrong end of a hangman's noose shortly after that. That money wouldn't be enjoyed. Don't know if that answers your question. Calling "tops'" and "bottoms" is always a precarious situation. Markets have a way of making monkeys out of everyone, and the "bear" market wants everyone to lose money (bulls and bears alike). That's where we're at now. If you're not sure, be in cash/cash equivalents/Treasury money markets or a "safe" foreign currency. Good luck picking that one. A deflationary depression will have your "cash" appreciate in value against falling prices, which accompany a deflationary scenario. Hope I'm not talking another language here. If you have questions, just ask. I'll try to explain in non-technical terms. Cary [/QUOTE]
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