Money, Banking and the Fed

CaryP

Senior Member
Messages
1,432
Money, Banking and the Fed

Most of Europe is going throw social unrest, most notably Germany and France, because of the govt.'s efforts to reduce retiree pensions there. I haven't kept up with all the details and where developments are currently, but a reduction of benefits is a necessity. The aging of the West and Japan will cripple our economies over the next 20 years and more. Some countries, Japan and China especially, are aging rapidly. Japan because of post WW II demographics, and China because of birth restrictions. The concept of what we call Social Security was initially introduced in Germany in the late 1800's. The socialist leaning govts. of Europe promised good retiree pensions in the latter half of the last century. The reality of a growing retiree demographic is making those promises unrealistic. Same holds true for the U.S. and Japan.

The US Congress has been knowing about this problem since the 1970's. Their reponse to the problem? Start reigning in benefits? Start acting responsibly before it becomes a problem? Hell no. Raise benefits. Raise payroll taxes. The sky's the limit so long as this thing blows up while somebody else is in office down the road. The only thing that Congress has done to address the problem was a reduction of increases in future benefits under the Newt Gingrich "Contract with America" campaign. Another fraud foisted on the all too willing American public.

A short rant here. I tend to bitch about politicians that get re-elected by promising money to those who vote for them, and being irresponsible to the greater good of the country. What allows this to happen? Why have politicians all learned that the best way to get elected and re-elected is to spend and borrow our way into oblivion? Because that's what American voters keep putting in office. American voters in general, are more short sighted and self centered than the slime balls they put in office, with a few exceptions. There are a couple of federal elected officials who aren't slime balls. No offense intended to anyone here, but if the shoe fits, wear it. The socialist leaning, welfare state we've heading to is just what the PTB want. Keep the populace dependant on the gubament, and the gubament can do whatever it wants. Throw some handouts in G-Town on a drive by, and keep the homeslices happy. Yep, it seems to working. Look what we have as our primary choices for president this year.

Cary

P.S. Heggy, I think Paul was keeping my "rat's ass" rant going. I don't think he was pinging on you, or it'd be pretty obvious. Don't mean to speak for you Paul. You are one funny dude. You must be giving a lot of rat's asses to be overrun with them. Sounds like my office. I'm not allowed to "give" at home.
 

Judge Bean

Senior Member
Messages
1,257
Money, Banking and the Fed

Sorry, I don't mean to denigrate you Heggy or anybody else who goes to Canada for any reason, though I think that by all rights it should be within the territory of the United States. I mean, what's going on there, anyway-- coins with sardines on them? I don't know... isn't there some way Canadians can just join up as Americans and get rid of this separate nation idea?

I think Australia may be the best repository of those rat ends, anyway. Better climate.
 

Unintentional

Active Member
Messages
577
Money, Banking and the Fed

Didn't someone once say that 80% of Canada lives along the US/Canada border? Are they grouping for an attack?
 

CaryP

Senior Member
Messages
1,432
Money, Banking and the Fed

I'm posting the latest interview of Bob Prechter. Prechter is the founder of Elliot Wave International, a financial analysis firm out of Georgia. His book, "Conquer the Crash" is high on my recommended reading list. This interview was in the latest edition of the Elliot Wave Theorist. I asked permission to reproduce it and got a Word version of the interview in reply from Prechter's organization. You might want to read this one. It don't sound too good for the US economy going forward. Seems we're on the precipice of a very dark cliff. You can access Prechter's site at http://www.elliotwave.com Yes, it's a paid subscriber site, but there's some free stuff there. Yes, he has a political endorsement at the end of the interview, one I happen to agree with.

Cary

October 15, 2004
Elliott Wave Theorist
An Interview by Chris Oliver, Money Editor, The South China Post

Q: Can the Federal Reserve prevent deflation?
A: No. We have a huge bond market of $30 trillion, which is debt already created. If bond investors came to believe that the Fed would begin printing money and throwing it around, what would they do? They would sell every bond they?ve got, which would lead to a decrease in the supply of credit because bond prices would fall and interest rates would rise. So there aren?t any alternatives to deflation.

Q: What will be the outcome of deflation?
A: The ultimate result is going to be a worldwide depression. There were deep depressions in the 1790s, the 1840s and the 1930s, and I think the next one is already underway. It started in 2001. We?ve had one or two every century, and we are headed into one now.

Q: Gold bugs say we are in an inflationary era and that this is backed by the rapid rise in the price of the yellow metal from $250 an ounce in 2001 to above $400 recently.
A: They didn?t say it at the low in February 2001, when gold was a buy at $250. The fundamentals were all bearish then, and even gold mines were hedging for further decline, which never came. Fundamentalist arguments don?t get you in at a bottom or out at a top. They often set traps so you?ll do the wrong thing.

Q: But doesn?t the gold rally predict inflation?
A: Think about this: Gold is trading exactly where it was in 1996 despite massive credit inflation over the past eight years. Why is that? I think the gold market understands the difference between credit inflation and currency inflation. A reversal in credit expansion ? which is inevitable ? will crush prices for everything, and the gold market knows it. The gold bugs? theory is that an increasing money ? actually credit ? supply should be bullish for gold and silver. But it hasn?t been bullish for 24 years, so why is it bullish now? Look, I might be wrong on my current outlook for gold. In 1995, in At the Crest, I called for the bear market to end about New Year?s Day of 2001, and it ended that February. So I?m somewhat conflicted. But that doesn?t mean that the bulls? arguments are any good. We have heard them at every gold top since 1980 and opposite arguments at the lows. People have a psychological imperative to come up with reasons to be bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms. Market analysis is a subtle and difficult craft. You can?t just look out your window and assume the obvious. That?s not to say the obvious never happens, but when it does, it?s luck.

Q: If the forces of inflation in real estate and consumer prices have been going on for decades, why should we believe they are now about to reverse?
A: The answer is that the wave patterns in the stock market tell you when confidence is likely to be strong or weak. The bull market of the 1990s was a period of high confidence. Many people were willing to extend credit, and many others were willing to borrow. As soon as the trend turned down, it told you that people were becoming more defensive, more protective of what they have, more conservative financially. In the long run, it means a trend towards less extension of credit and less assumption of debt. It will eventually mean the net retirement of debt.

Q: What you are saying essentially is that the world as we know it is about to change dramatically.
A: It?s been changing since 2000, and the trend is about to accelerate downward.

Q: Why do so few other people think this?
A: Most people extrapolate past trends when they forecast, and it works fine when the trend is going your way. But when you are on the cusp of a change, it is the most deadly thing you can do. The world goes through cycles. Trends don?t last forever. The question is, can you identify the turning point? Can you see historically what the evidence has been and recognize the end of a trend that everyone caught up in the moment thinks will go on forever?

Q; Despite your bearish outlook on metals, you still believe investors should own them?
A: In 1993 when silver got down to $3.50 an ounce, I said to go out and buy bags of silver as a long term insurance policy against the collapse of the banking system. In February 2001 at the bottom for gold, I put out a bullish analysis on it. Sure, you should buy the metals, when the time is right. Right now I think there?s a lot more money to be made being short the stock market.

Q: How far down will stock prices go?
A: As I have said all along, from the peak, stock prices should go down at least 90 percent. In 2000-2002, the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 fell in half. That is the largest bear market since 1929 to 1932. It is bigger than 1973 to 1974, so already what we have seen is off the modern scale. Yet people are yawning about it. If people were really bearish on stocks today, I might have to reconsider, but they are as bullish now as they were in 1999. This tells you that my 90 percent forecast is still valid.

Q: What happens to U.S. real estate prices?
A: Same thing. Ninety percent.

Q: Some analysts point out that real estate prices in other Anglo Saxon countries have been in a bull market for much longer than the U.S. Isn?t that a sign that U.S. prices could go a lot higher?
A: In the tulip mania of the 1630s in Holland, tulips went from 20 cents to 60 florens and then crashed to 2 cents. Now, if someone said at 30 florens on the way up, ?This is ridiculous. A crash is coming. Don?t play the game.? And someone else said, ?I think they could go to 40 or 50,? does that mean you want to own tulips just in case they go higher? Tulips crashed very fast, and so did stocks in 1720 and 1929. Real estate when it turns down is illiquid. I think it?s playing with fire to say it could go a few more months. It is not quite as dangerous to overstay your welcome in the stock market because the stock market is highly liquid, so if you realize you?ve been caught, you can still sell at the market price. In real estate, if you hold on too long, nobody is there to buy.

Q: How close are we to this debt implosion?
A: I think it is already underway. Lending to corporations is way down. Venture capital is way down. Only real estate lending has continued strong, but that trend is ending. Fannie Mae, perhaps the biggest engine of housing credit, has come under attack in the press. I believe the downtrend is beginning to overcome the old inflationary forces. You can see it in the stock market. It topped in February, and that top was lower than four years ago.

Q: Many private banking institutions that formulate their investment models on a wealth preservation theme are placing their clients into a mix of stock and bonds, essentially using models that have worked for the past 75 years. But what you are saying is truly astonishing by suggesting that those prescriptions for wealth preservation are completely misguided. That, in fact, what has worked for most of the past century will not work anymore.
A: Exactly. That mix is now a wealth destruction scheme, unless the bonds they own were issued by debtors who definitely won?t go under, in which case they?re O.K. But the truly conservative banks today ? and there are very few of them ? are the ones that are almost entirely liquid. There are banks that are highly liquid and have only short term government paper from entities such as the Swiss government. Most U.S. banks are in long term loans to real estate purchasers and businesses. The risk is huge. Even their conservative portfolios are filled with paper that I would not want to own. In the depression, that paper is going to become junk-rated at best. In Conquer the Crash, I list the safest banks in the United States, and I also tell you who to get in touch with if you want the safest banks worldwide. They do exist.

Q: Your book has been in circulation for two years now, and although you?ve faced a lot of opposition you have not capitulated.
A: No, in fact I think the evidence is piling higher and higher for my scenario. I should say our scenario, since Frost and I laid out the whole thing?the bull market and the bear market?in Elliott Wave Principle in 1978.

Q: Where do you find the moral courage to stand up in the face of global financial industry that doubts the conclusions and the very premise of your work?
A: It?s a strain. But it?s impossible to be correct on a major trend change unless the majority views your outlook as wrong. That doesn?t mean your outlook will come to pass, but it is a prerequisite. I suppose it is difficult for people who value fitting in with the crowd more than the integrity of their own work. But people like that shouldn?t be in the forecasting business. It is always a fight and a struggle. Our business is analyzing and forecasting social mood, which means that if you identify an extreme of optimism or pessimism, by definition the vast majority of people disagrees with you. It is sort of a losing situation, frankly, because the people who really get rich in this business write bullish books near the end of an uptrend and bearish books near the end of a downtrend. They are all wrong, and they bankrupt their readers, but the sellers of the books make a lot of money. So when I put out a bullish book in 1978, we didn?t sell a lot of copies until years later. And when I put out bearish books in 1995 and 1999, they didn?t get read, at least not right away. The one I put out in 2002 sold well because the market was already off its highs. But as the bear market progresses, that book will sell more and more copies. It is not the best way to make money, but it?s honest.

Q: Many contrarian writers are at odds with your views on gold and deflation. How do you account for the discrepancy?
A: They believe that the 1970s will repeat. People in the early 1930s initially thought the ?teens would repeat, but they didn?t. Many commodities have collapsed 30%-50% this year. Does that sound like runaway inflation to you?

Q: What is going to happen to the huge number of people who have gone out in recent years and bought a house in countries where real estate prices have risen substantially?
A: ...and then borrowed against the capital gain! It is extremely dangerous. The banks will end up owning the homes. These people will have nothing. It has happened before. But the crisis will last only a few years, and we will back on the upswing again. The secret is, don?t get caught in it. There will be super investment opportunities at the bottom.

Q: What is your view of Alan Greenspan?
A: He is somewhat of an enigma. I think he is an extremely intelligent man. He has been quoted several times saying exactly what Elliotticians have been saying for 70 years: The stock market is driven by waves of optimism and pessimism. He has said something along the lines of, ?We don?t control the economy, all we do is adjust interest rates.? On the other hand, since he knows that, I am surprised that he wants the job, because what the Fed mostly does is react to the market. The Fed doesn?t create trends. For example, the recent rises in the Fed funds rate by a quarter point; those occurred after interest rates had risen for a year. My advice to Alan is to take a bow and retire, now.

Q: Your issue in late 2003 predicted a high in the U.S. stock market in February of this year?.
A: So far, it?s looking good. The February 20 issue said that the previous day we had hit the target in both time and price. And that was the top day. I had previously thought we peaked in October 2003, so it was the second time I tried to forecast the end of the bear market rally at a specific time and price. But any time you can pinpoint something on two tries, you?ve got something useful. If you want to learn how to use Fibonacci to forecast market turns, just get a copy of that issue.

Q: If we see a downturn in the U.S. markets as you are predicting, what are the ramifications for Asian markets?
A: Normally, you have to analyze each market on its own waves. We have 22 specialists on staff here, and we follow all the major market worldwide. Talk to those analysts and see what they are saying about the wave pattern of each market. If you?re interested in our other work, go to www.elliottwave.com, click on ?Store? and then on ?Specialty Services.? But I can say that a bear market of Grand Supercycle degree should cause a worldwide drop in trade and a worldwide drop in prices and values. So it is highly likely that Asian markets will go down along with European and American markets. A lot of people think that Japan has made its final low, but I don?t think there is any way that?s true. The same goes for China.

Q: To round out our questions, what lies ahead?
A: It is very early in the depression, so you don?t see bread lines and bankruptcies and bank closings yet. That?s what you will see at the low. When the depression becomes obvious to everyone else and the newspapers are publishing comments from angry depositors who can?t get their money out of the bank and economists are telling you to stay away from the stock market because of the bearish fundamentals, we will be getting ready to turn bullish. Assuming I live that long!


Media Coverage

I would like to thank Zbigniew Piekarski of the Warsaw Business Journal, Vox Day of WorldNet Daily, Matt Blackman of Investopedia, Canadian journalists Keith Woodhouse and Alex Roslin, Paul Farrell of CBS MarketWatch and Ginger Szala of Futures Magazine for their recent coverage of the Wave Principle and socionomics. You may read Vox?s article at www.worldnetdaily.com and Paul?s article at cbs.marketwatch.com (click on ?The 100-Year Bear?).

You Do Have a Choice

You?re not paying for this paragraph as I?m putting it in place of some of the small print, so please pardon a political statement. Maybe Bush or Kerry is your hero; if so, fine, but from what I can tell, most people are voting against someone this year. Here?s the choice as I see it: You can vote against the biggest spender since Lyndon Johnson (Bush) or someone who will be the biggest spender since Bush (Kerry). You can vote against someone who is squandering our military in a foreign quagmire (Bush) or someone who will weaken the military with neglect (Kerry). You can vote against someone who tries to limit your social freedom (Bush) or someone who will limit your economic freedom (Kerry). Or you can vote for the Libertarian candidate, Michael Badnarik, and help restore America?s historic theme of liberty and responsibility. Don?t waste your vote this year. Send a message to the standard politicians. If you can?t abide any of them, Just Say No and don?t vote at all.
 

Alyxavior

Member
Messages
241
Money, Banking and the Fed

OK.

I have some questions:

What are you going to do with all this hard currency as you liquidate it? Do you really believe that when if the economy does fall out...that anybody is even going to honor any of it? I suppose if you liquidate into paper, make sure you get all ones...that way when you need to use it for toilet paper and to build fires, you have a lot of it. If it's gold...I'm sure you're going to have horses and carts to carry it all.

I remember it said once that the only thing you have to fear is fear itself.

If I were getting prepared for anything in the future...I'd make the most of the NOW involved. You can't guarantee anything to happen. Your attitude determines a lot of what happens to you.

*nod*

Creo Amadeo
 

CaryP

Senior Member
Messages
1,432
Money, Banking and the Fed

I found this in a post that Darkwolf made in another thread, but it's most relevant here. You might want to take a look and the site and the video. Yes, the video is 59 minutes long, but you can view it from the website. The video lays out the facts of how our manufacturing economy has been hollowed out, and how our jobs are being "outsourced" at an alarming rate. The point of the presentation is that the U.S. is destined to become a third world economic country in the next 20 yrs.

If you give a rat's ass, here's the link to the site.

Stop the Free Trade Area of the Americas

If you've got an hour to see some facts on what's going on in our economy, and have another rat's ass to give, here's the link to the video from the web.

Video from Stop the FTAA

Yeeha.

Cary
 

The_Ruffneck

Member
Messages
286
Money, Banking and the Fed

Q: Your book has been in circulation for two years now, and although you?ve faced a lot of opposition you have not capitulated.
A: No, in fact I think the evidence is piling higher and higher for my scenario. I should say our scenario, since Frost and I laid out the whole thing?the bull market and the bear market?in Elliott Wave Principle in 1978.

So he invented the terms bear and bull market? as a former economics student i must say he has an impressive resume to say the least
 

Unintentional

Active Member
Messages
577
Money, Banking and the Fed

I have a quick question. When the Euro first came out, it cost $1 us dollar to buy one Euro. It now cost $1.30 us dollars to buy one Euro. Doesn't that mean in terms or Euros our deficet has gone down 30%?

Let me restate that. Let's say our deficit was 1 triillion US dollars or Euros when the Euro fist came out. Now it is still 1 trillion dollars in US dollars (asuming no increase or interest of anything), but only 0.769 trillion Euros. Is there someway we, or the U.S., can cash in on this?

It seems to me, if we converted our entire National Debt to Euros when the Euro fist came out, we could have paid off 30% of by doing nothing but riding the Euro.

As of the time of this post 1 EUR = 1.32918 USD. Quick! Hurry and buy some Euros! 30% return seems darn good!

Sure is colorful money though.
euro_aufmacher.jpg
 

CaryP

Senior Member
Messages
1,432
Money, Banking and the Fed

Originally posted by The_Ruffneck@Nov 30 2004, 08:45 PM
Q: Your book has been in circulation for two years now, and although you?ve faced a lot of opposition you have not capitulated.
A: No, in fact I think the evidence is piling higher and higher for my scenario. I should say our scenario, since Frost and I laid out the whole thing?the bull market and the bear market?in Elliott Wave Principle in 1978.

So he invented the terms bear and bull market? as a former economics student i must say he has an impressive resume to say the least

No, Ruffneck, Prechtor did not invent the terms of "bull" or "bear" market. These are "old" terms to describe the up or "bull" market, and the down or "bear" market. The bull/bear was adopted to for the market direction because it describes the respective animal's fighting style.

Bulls gore upward, hence "up" markets are called "bull" markets.

Bears tend to claw downward, hence "down" markets are called "bear" markets.

Guess where "blue chip" stocks got their name? Ever played poker? The most expensive chip in poker (I'm going from what I've been told, as I don't gamble) is the "blue" chip. Hence the name for the most prestigious and stable companies, denoted as "blue chip" companies.

A bit of Wall Street trivia.

And I agree, Prechter has quite the resume. The man is brilliant in the big picture scenario. His current outlook is quite scary over the next 7 yrs. or so.

Cary
 

CaryP

Senior Member
Messages
1,432
Money, Banking and the Fed

I have a quick question. When the Euro first came out, it cost $1 us dollar to buy one Euro. It now cost $1.30 us dollars to buy one Euro. Doesn't that mean in terms or Euros our deficet has gone down 30%?

Let me restate that. Let's say our deficit was 1 triillion US dollars or Euros when the Euro fist came out. Now it is still 1 trillion dollars in US dollars (asuming no increase or interest of anything), but only 0.769 trillion Euros. Is there someway we, or the U.S., can cash in on this?

It seems to me, if we converted our entire National Debt to Euros when the Euro fist came out, we could have paid off 30% of by doing nothing but riding the Euro.

As of the time of this post 1 EUR = 1.32918 USD. Quick! Hurry and buy some Euros! 30% return seems darn good!

Yes, when the euro first came out it was on "parity" with the dollar in a 1 for 1 exchange. It dropped from there to about .75 euros to the dollar if memory serves. Now the euro is kicking the dollar's ass in the FOREX market. Our deficit is much larger than $1 Trillion. It's unfathomable. It's REAL BAD. The dollar is extremely oversold in the short-term. The bearish sentiment on the dollar is at all time extremes. This means we should get a bounce in the dollar. After a multi-week to multi-month bounce the selling should resume hard to the downside. The alternative scenario is for the dollar to just crash now. If that's the case, kiss you ass goodbye, 'cause life as we know has been over.

In order for "us" to convert our entire national debt (now approaching $8 Trillion on a cash basis, and $50+ Trillion on an accrual basis) to euros would just drive a stake in the dollar and cause an instant global depression of the worst magnitude known to mankind in the history of the world. This ain't no fun and games Uni. This is real serious "shite" as the Brits say. As much as I know that the dollar is overvalued, I hope we get a slow motion crash for the next couple of years, 'cause I'm not nearly prepared enough. A sudden catastrophic dollar crash over the next few months would be BAD in the worst sense of the word. Sure, if you're on the right side of the trade, you could make some paper profits, but how would you cash in on them? Cash in for what? If the dollar turns into something like the Zimbabwe currency, we'll be using $1 bills for toilet paper because they'll be cheaper that a single sheet of toilet paper. No joke, no kidding. That's what's going on in Zimbabwe. People are using the paper currency as toilet paper 'cause it's cheaper than the sheets on a roll of toilet paper. I don't wish that on America. But a serious day of reckoning is coming, and it will catch most people off guard. I know I sound like the crazy man screaming in the desert, but the facts are there. The economic forces which have proven themselves throughout history are there. We got some hard times ahead of us. When is the question, not if.

Cary
 

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