2004 Elections
I've copied a piece I read today by Bill Bonner. Mr. Bonner is the founder of The Daily Reckoning, a daily free email about the economy and finance. Mr. Bonner's comments today pretty much summarize my opinion of this year's elections and the general social mood of the American public. The social mood is shifting back to negative, part and parcel of the mega bear market that is beginning to reappear. Thought some of you might find Mr. Bonner's missives interesting.
Cary
I've copied a piece I read today by Bill Bonner. Mr. Bonner is the founder of The Daily Reckoning, a daily free email about the economy and finance. Mr. Bonner's comments today pretty much summarize my opinion of this year's elections and the general social mood of the American public. The social mood is shifting back to negative, part and parcel of the mega bear market that is beginning to reappear. Thought some of you might find Mr. Bonner's missives interesting.
ARMAGEDDON IN MANHATTAN
by Bill Bonner
The national conventions have lost their sweaty charm. Air conditioning is partly to blame. And television.
Like mobsters on winter holiday in Mexico, celebrating delegates used to meet in hot rooms - some public, many private - to work out how they would divvy up the stolen loot. A senator from Iowa might get the post of secretary of Defense...where he would be able to rout a few dollars back to the folks in Des Moines - if he could deliver votes to the Chicago machine. The mayor of New Orleans might be promised a bridge, a base or a place on the ticket - if he could bring along the rubes from Dixie. And so the deals were made, and the republic bumbled along.
But now, the national conventions are a disappointment even to insomniacs. The main TV channels have given up on them. Only the cable shows bother to carry convention highlights.
Everyone is cool now. The delegates - mostly schoolteachers, parole officers and postmasters - are almost all already on the government payroll. All pretend to be heirs to revolutionaries such as Jefferson and Hancock, but none has any intention of upsetting things. Every event is carefully staged. And every speech is run through an editing process designed to remove any spark of genuine thought, originality or honesty. Speakers are trained to stay \"on message\" the way pack animals are kept plodding forward - that is to say, stupidly...without really understanding where they are going or why. They move forward with no visible or audible effort of thought; premises are never considered, alternatives are never discussed. Instead, the whole thing marches ahead dumbly - towards whatever humbug the managers are trying to sell.
The only interesting speech coming out of the Republican's get-together so far was the one by Georgia Sen. Zell Miller, a turncoat Democrat, whose discourse included such extravagant flights of fancy he almost crashed into the rafters.
Three years ago, Miller looked up at the Democratic candidate and saw nothing not to like. Kerry was announced as \"one of the nation's authentic war heroes.\" But Kerry's stock seems to have fallen - at least in the cracker senator's eyes. For this week, Miller saw nothing to like about Kerry. The Democrats' man \"would let Paris decide when American needs defending. I want Bush to decide.\"
Sen. Miller seemed unaware or unconcerned that the U.S. Constitution puts the burden on Congress to decide when America needs defending. It alone has power to declare war...and to pay for it. But no one in the convention hall noticed or cared. The Grand Ol' Party that at least used to mention the Constitution a few times has forgotten about it. Forgotten, too, is all concern about a balanced budget, which used to come up from time to time at Republican conventions. And balanced trade. And a man's right to do as he pleased without what Ronald Reagan called \"big guvmint\" getting in his way.
What was also missing was any mention of \"peace.\" Typically, a political convention is an opportunity to promise \"peace and prosperity.\" Both parties promised prosperity, but forgot peace. But neither judged the wedge of \"peace\" voters big enough to try for a slice of it. Besides, the conventions are now designed - like TV itself - to avoid anything that might light up a brain scan. Mentioning peace could upset the voters, or the delegates, or the candidates themselves. America's \"War on Terror\" may be a challenge for intellectuals - but it has been a big hit with the voters.
Terror is not, strictly speaking, something you can make war against. You need an enemy, not a method.
House-fraus in Germany, a country with tough gun-control laws, found that the best way to bump off their husbands was to hit them in the head with a heavy frying pan. Germany might have declared war on frying pans; it would have made as much sense.
Enemies who use terrorist tactics - the Chechens in the former Soviet Union, the Basques in Spain and France, the IRA in the UK, as well as assorted crackpots and future national leaders - are a dangerous nuisance. But they are hardly worthy of a real war. They use terror because they are not capable of a real war...they may threaten republicans, in other words, but not the republic itself.
Still, Americans act as though they were on the verge of such Armageddon-like showdown. With whom? Why? They can't be bothered to wonder.
Nothing is quite so thrilling as being at war...especially with an enemy who can't do you much harm. For every terrorist capable of striking a blow at the United States, there must be at least 10 bodyguards around the convention in New York. Terrorists were rumored to be planning an attack. None appeared. Why they would want to disrupt such a pointless and lifeless event was never explained.
Yet Americans like to imagine themselves as if they were engaged in some heroic struggle; they long to bring the enemy to battle and annihilate him on primetime TV. Terrorists were so few and far between that the war party had to make do with Third World nations - Afghanistan and Iraq - as proxies for the wispy terrorists.
Mr. Kerry judged the public's mood correctly. The voters were practically foaming at the mouth for war. So he showed them pictures of himself as a young warrior - he is the only presidential candidate...and perhaps the only Homo sapiens below the rank of general...to ever re-enact battle scenes of himself while the war was still going on around him. Which just goes to show how farsighted the Democratic candidate is: He couldn't use the phony newsreel footage for another 35 years...until \"peace\" disappeared finally from the convention promises.
But then came the Swiftees, and all of a sudden the campaign seemed to turn on how big a liar John Kerry is; Bush's whoppers were forgotten.
And now, the fever mounts. Americans appear to have decided to give war a chance. The election of 2004 seems little more than a contest of who can promise to make it most fun.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning
Cary